Venue: The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, 1 Towerview Drive, Durham, NC 27708-0120

 

Presentation

Mortality and the Baseball Hall of Fame: An Investigation into the Role of Status in Life Expectancy

Authors:

Presenter: David J. Becker (University of Alabama at Birmingham)

Discussant: David C. Grabowski (Harvard University)

Session: Quasi-experimental Studies of Social Status and Health

Room: Classroom B

When: Monday 8:30 a.m. - 10 a.m.

Previous work on the role of social status in health has come from animal studies (e.g., Sapolsky's work on baboons) and the study of humans in non-experimental settings (e.g., British civil servants, Oscar and Nobel Prize winners). We use the precise rules of induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame to examine the impact of status attainment (or non-attainment) on life expectancy. The selection rule for induction by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) is perfectly observed – a BBWAA ballot share of 75 percent or more. Further, the reference group for status comparisons is transparent, and selection is not in the direct control of the players.

We find that BBWAA inductees may live longer than players who narrowly miss induction by the BBWAA, but they do not live as long as Hall-of-Fame eligible players who missed induction by a wide margin. Strikingly, players who either receive above 50-percent of the vote but were not inducted ("close votes") or who were inducted only after several, close votes have greatly reduced life expectancy relative to early inductees and non-inductees with lower vote shares. Life expectancy falls 3 percent for every close vote that does not result in induction. By contrast, Hall-of-Fame induction through the Veteran's Committee – which is less transparent and more arbitrary – increases life expectancy, mostly for players who never received a BBWAA ballot share above 10 percent. The effects of the Hall- of-Fame variables are much larger in magnitude than the effects of educational attainment, BMI, and race/ethnicity. These results, which are robust to a multitude of specifications and falsification tests, imply that non-attainment or delayed attainment of "all-or-nothing" status leads to premature death – with an excess risk of death due to heart attack and stroke – and that status attained through "luck" (Veteran's Committee induction) has greater health benefits than performance- related status (BBWAA induction). We also calculate that the establishment of the Hall of Fame reduces the average life expectancy of baseball players while increasing inequality.