Venue: The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, 1 Towerview Drive, Durham, NC 27708-0120
Presentation
From the Vietnam War to Retirement: Are Veterans Healthy Enough to Enjoy Their 'Golden Years'?
It has been 34 years since the last of the over 1.7 million Vietnam War era selective service inductees took their oath to serve in the United States military. Draftees comprise approximately 8.5% of the male birth cohorts from 1944 to 1951; there were still more servicemen who volunteered during the Vietnam War. For most Vietnam Veterans, retirement is right around the corner; for some, it has recently begun. What do Vietnam veterans have to look forward to?
This paper explores one aspect of how veterans have faired since the war and their outlook for retirement. Specifically, I examine the disability rate of veterans using three different disability definitions: 1) work disability, 2) personal care disability, and 3) mobility disability. Additionally, I investigate if differences in disability rates exist between black veterans and their white counterparts. If military service changes the probability of later-life disability (I am not including directly observable service-caused disability), policymakers need to consider the long-term costs of the military service in the decision making process. For the empirical analysis, I employ a linear probability model and two-stage least squares. Expressly, I am estimating how being a veteran changes the probability of being disabled compared to non-veterans. I use a difference-in-difference model to control for the natural rate of change of disability in the aging population, and I utilize a two-stage model to correct for the endogeneity problem associated with the selection of the control and the treatment groups. The linear models are checked for robustness using probit and two-stage probit. Additional robustness checks are made using different covariates and instrumental variables. The data come from IPUMS, the Defense Manpower Data Center, the US Census Bureau, and the Selective Service System.
This research suggests veterans suffer from lower rates of disability than non-veterans (but non-veterans include those ineligible to serve because of disability), but higher rates of change in disability. For example, from 1990 to 2000, the rate of increase at which white Vietnam veterans claim personal care disabilities and mobility disabilities were 20% and 30% higher than for non-veterans, respectively. For black veterans, the same rates of increase were 5% and 30% above the control group. Overall, these findings support the argument that military service has negative long-term impacts on health and the costs of maintaining a large military may far exceed current beliefs.